IR: ClimateGate May Burst AGW Logjam
This IMPACT Report supports the following Repair Mission:
Bref: The infamous “East Anglia Files” have combined with the Danish Text leak to become causative events which have empowered Climate Skeptics with Media visibility, and thus raising a significant new public profile for their contrary positions on Anthropogenic Global Warming(AGW). These events also enable a semi-legitimate stance for further questioning of the Science (and thus the Economics) behind AGW. The Impact of these events must be explored since they produce and empower an enormous variety of other causative events by introducing radical and chaotic new elements into an already rather unstable setting fro the Future, as we’ve already seen with easy fluctuations of Public Opinion on AGW and/or the current “CarbonTax” approach to Climate Change in some parts of the World. The causative events behind this (so-called) ClimateGate issue have provided cohesion to Climate Skeptics, and allowed the semi-suppressed, scattered, and often easily discredited or radically contentious points of opposition to the current AGW based Climate Change movement to, in fact, more clearly coalesce into a formidable influence on Public Opinion and therefore the Future of the Environment.
Goals: Environauts, are compelled to discover “Tippy” events that can shift the course of History towards alternate Futures. Subsequently, either defending against any perceived negative effects, or Future risks, or discovering and proliferating any of the constructive options that can re-frame such an event for it’s positive attributes as well. By collectively carving back the chaos that surrounds ‘Tippy’ events, and slicing away at some of the rhetorical info, we begin by exposing some of the possible outcomes and providing some comprehensive info-bites that are easily re-stated and ready for easy Relaying.
For the sake of simplicity we’ll begin with at least 2 polar points of view that are easily shared with others.
Namely, the Risks and Rewards of what we can foresee being possible results of the ClimateGate issue, both from a Present as well as in a Future retrospect. The immediate goal is to limit potential damages, while spreading the possibilities of positive or alternate results that would assure the best possible Future Environment for us all. Please “Relay” anything you find of value, and include any new possible Impacts in the Comments field further below, for wider Relay/Distribution.
- The Danish Text leak risks damaging the negotiation process at the Copenhagen Climate Conference by alienating 3rd World delegates, threatening a retreat of the U.N. in future roles in favour of handing more controls to teh IMF and other WorldBanks, as well as generally derailing the fragile Public confidence in the (relatively complex and unknown) processes behind entire Conference if taken to extremes.
- Unfortunately, in a media-savvy world, the type of knee-jerk denials, defensive reactions, and rhetorical counter-claims (ie. the work of “Big Oil” stooges, etc) that we’ve seen from the ruling regimes for Climate Change thus far are often appearing to make the communities involved seem at least more possibly culpable of the Skeptics claims. This simply adds fuel to the incalculably enormous risk of more Viral and Media memes emerging from this event to be spread via various Networks either in the Broadcast or Cyber Space.
- Aside from Phil Jones stepping down from his role as director of the climatic research unit (CRU) during an investigation, and the official CRU website being served from the CRU Emergency Webserver, There hasn’t been a concerted effort or full public response from East Anglia to the allegations raised by this event. These seem to be signs of standard PublicRelations (PR) methods, especially if you believe that silence is also a PR method that’s meant to not draw attention to itself or it’s underlying issues during the damage control phase of a crisis. This standard approach doesn’t bode well in the Public’s sub-conscious. Especcially as it becomes increasingly clear that this has turned into an almost complete PR boondoggle!
- Since there is already a large margin of Public Opinion (esp. in certain regions) that is currently undecided on the question of AGW, this type of well publicized development could offer some form of reprieve to those who’d rather avoid a complex issue than face it’s scary prospects, and obviously tip the scales towards a more precipitous future outcome.
- It’s common knowledge that a wide majority of people who believe that carbon-dioxide (CO2) is at the root cause of AGW, are simply subscribing to a popular and politically correct opinion, and in fact have no innate understanding of the underlying issues and science behind the subject. If comprehensive, and equally slanted stories circulate to clearly state how the AGW Science can be seen as flawed (even on the smaller scale of the “fixed” results or statistical “tricks”) the entire system of Public faith in the scientific methods employed could start to heave and crumble. Major shifts in Public Opinion (and therefore Political/public Policy) would not be far behind.
- The Mainstream Media has been carrying the standard version of AGW enduced Climate Change for quite awhile, and is running out of steam when it comes to presenting this as “news”. If this ClimateGate issue were to be mishandled at the PR level, or blown up into the enormous proportions that the Mainstream will use to generate ratings, the long-termeffects against Environmentalism could indeed be incalculably catastrophic down the road…
The longer-term rewards behind this event are hard to imagine at Present but, like good Environauts, we can certainly derive positive perceptions from any event. Unless of course you consider the Climate Skeptic movement to somehow be a positive force, which will save Humanity from any grave miscues that could result from simply locking-in-step with the current ruling regimes behind AGW, and its current support from the ClimateChange Movement.
- We may come to realize that the Climate Change movement is not entirely represented by the ruling factions of AGW that are stalwart backers of a Carbon Cap and Trade solution, and become more free to examine our options, or at least take a more critical view of current solutions.
- It is now abundantly clear that the Climate Skeptics have a far better grasp of managing the Media and Public perceptions, and this event serves to assure that future issues will be handled much more immediately, openly, and effectively. Any demonstrations of a Media driven backlash, could serve to further the idea that any organization that supports dirty, wasteful, or polluting activities, must also have a Mainstream Media at their disposal, which could play into a Public distrust of Corporate Media structures, and foster the growth of Alternative Media
- James Hansen, the world’s pre-eminent climate scientist, has publicly stated that any agreement likely to emerge from the negotiations would be so deeply flawed that it would be better to start again from scratch, rather than spending years interpreting adn re-hashing a Kyoto-style agreement. Mr.Hansen might very well get his wish.
- Presumably, this breach of email security at East Anglia will at least force more stringent and secured protocols for future communications, and possibly even an audit of mailserver and database storage/backup methods to assure the safekeeping of historical info…Since it’s now claimed that raw data from the 80’s has also been “lost” as well! This event may have already produced positive results by raising security concerns at several other Climate Research facilities that have subsequently experienced attempted break-ins since the CRU hack.
- Of course, this event is already being roundly dismissed by the ruling schools of thought that have supported the AGW model all along, with allegations of theft, deceit, and de-contextualised mis-information all meant to undermine Public confidence in the undeniable reality of global warming. This type of dogmatic reinforcement of positions may serve to further cement some people’s opinions.
- In an ideal world, we would hope for a more open and transparent approach to communications which would in fact help the entire World see that the scientific community (the one that backs AGW models) indeed has nothing at all to hide here. Hopefully any PR people at East Anglia, where these documents were sourced/stolen, will at least recognize the immense (future) value of demonstrating openly transparent honesty and accountability at this crucial point in time. This would go a long way inrestoring Public Faith in the Scientific process, and in assuring future success in mitigating Climate Change based on scientific data, regardless of the direct outcome of this particular event. For example, it’s abundantly clear now that Phil Jones (and Company) should have immediately participated in a barrage of Press Conferences, if not going on a world-wind tour of TV/News studios to confront their critics with a clear and cogent message of confidence for the Public.
- This event allows us to once again observe some standard PR practices at work, and thus integrate these into our subconscious Media Awareness in order to fine tune our own senses. In this case we see standard damage control practices, with quick denials (files are fabricated), and deflections (the files were stolen/hacked, not “leaked”), and then the veil of silence that waits for dust to settle awhile not drawing any attention to itself. This simply reinforces the PR-savvy intuitions of most Citizens, and is a valuable assurance to offer to others as well as we all seek to make sense of information overload, Media driven manipulations.
- This event should make it clearly obvious that we still don’t have adequate leadership on this greatest of all Human challenges. Also that it’s plainly clear that we cannot simply continue with ‘business as usual” any longer, since it is still the same types of people and power structures that are steering us towards the Future.