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Posts Tagged ‘Climategate’

IR: ClimateGate May Burst AGW Logjam

07/12/2009 Leave a comment


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This IMPACT Report supports the following Repair Mission:

A Serious Data Leak in the AGW Model

Bref: The infamous “East Anglia Files” have combined with the Danish Text leak to become causative events which have empowered Climate Skeptics with Media visibility, and thus raising a significant new public profile for their contrary positions on Anthropogenic Global Warming(AGW). These events also enable a semi-legitimate stance for further questioning of the Science (and thus the Economics) behind AGW. The Impact of these events must be explored since they produce and empower an enormous variety of other causative events by introducing radical and chaotic new elements into an already rather unstable setting fro the Future, as we’ve already seen with easy fluctuations of Public Opinion on AGW and/or the current “CarbonTax” approach to Climate Change in some parts of the World. The causative events behind this (so-called) ClimateGate issue have provided cohesion to Climate Skeptics, and allowed the semi-suppressed, scattered, and often easily discredited or radically contentious points of opposition to the current AGW based Climate Change movement to, in fact, more clearly coalesce into a formidable influence on Public Opinion and therefore the Future of the Environment.

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Climate Change: Gaming the Odds

07/12/2009 1 comment

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Take a spin...

Go ahead...Take a spin...but only ONE spin

Much like the frog who will happily sit in a steadily warming pot until he boils to death, a recent survey from the Pew Research Center, finds that 3/4 of Americans think that Climate Change is an important issue, but don’t perceive it as an immediate threat. This Washington D.C based think tank tasks itself with gathering data and providing correlative info behind the issues, trends that shape attitudes in the United States and thus affect the rest of world. Unfortunately for the rest of the world, it turns out that Climate Change has ranked at the very bottom of a list of 20 issues that included Terrorism and the Economy.

The Environment rated abit better in this same 2009 report, at 16 out of 20, but also saw a 15 point decline from 2008.

Of course it stands to reason that building a better future requires a solid foundation, and it’s understandable why Americans would want to get their own household affairs in order before trying to reinvent the wheels of their economy and social fabric. But before a greater vision of the future can even begin to be shared, let alone put into motion, it seems that there are basic credibility issues to be ironed out on the subject of Climate Change.

Americans seem rather divided on the whole issue of Global warming with only 49% believing that it is the result of man-made factors and activities.

36% say warming is occurring “mostly because of natural changes in the atmosphere.” About one-in-ten (11%) say “there is no solid evidence that the earth is getting warmer.” There’s also a strong correlation between the results and respondents political ideology, with only 21% of conservative Republicans saying the earth is warming due to human activity, compared with the nearly three-quarters (74%) of liberal Democrats who see humans as a root cause of Climate Change.

Is this a cognitive disconnect caused by a partisan political outlook? Or are there other more deeply rooted Sociological or even Psychological issues at play here? Could there be a tendency for humans to cower in denial at the prospect of issues that they feel powerless to change? Or are we just incapable of grasping the big picture long enough to see alternate possibilities, and deeper causes ?

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Carbon Credits: The House Always Wins

07/12/2009 1 comment

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…Unless of course the “House” gets shut down on charges of corruption, fraud, bribery, price fixing and graft. At which point the rest of the story just recedes into fading history.

Nobody gives much thought to Enron anymore these days…

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A Serious Data Leak in the AGW Model

02/12/2009 1 comment

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By now everyone is well aware of the “ClimateGate” issue that has spread like wildfire though the increasingly dry and over-warmed looking underbrush around the Copenhagen Conference. Just as a refresher, the volatile allegations behind this story first surfaced on November 19 at an inauspiciously excellent little WordPress Blog called The Air Vent. Although it’s administrating Editor/Writer was impeccably self-measured, and even-handed his own dispensation of the files that were offered exclusively to him – the results have since set off a maelstrom of reactions among Climate Skeptics, and the Climate Change Deniers out there. As expected, these Contrarians are claiming the “leaked” files from the University of East Anglia’s Hadley Climatic Research Unit (CRU) represent “evidence” that is being touted as proof positive that Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), or Man-Made Climate Change, is indeed at least subject to fabrication, motivating a monumental hoax that’s being pulled off by the profiteers who’ve already invested heavily in the interests that seek to remediate this supposedly trumped up global issue. This represents an enormous event that can sway the many fence-sitters out there, and many other “tippy” factors as well!

Is anyone else thinking that the "-gate" suffix is getting abit worn out ? Whether the files were illegally “hacked”, as was initially reported in the Press, or “leaked” as the early sources have claimed, (Vote your opinion below) this issue is only now just beginning to truly resonate with it’s aftershocks, as the implications start to become more widely apparent and reported.  The long-simmering underlying issue here has been the actual sources of the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory. This point of contention has been fueled by ongoing and largely suppressed complaints about the supposedly deficient peer-review process behind AGW, and also stirred up by  speculations about the allegedly biased nature of the very well-funded research bodies and fractured  scientific communities that have supposedly been coerced (financially or politically) into creating and maintaining a one-sided view of the AGW theory. So much so, that according to Skeptics, this scientific cabala of sorts has systematically shunned or ostracized all those who’ve called for a more pluralistic scrutiny, or wider debate and peer-review process of the central issues, and supporting sciences behind AGW. These allegations point to a version of Science that now seems corruptible, and that can not only be bought at a commercial level (of course), but also influenced at the Public level though the grants, disbursements, and any other political mechanisms that can exert influence upon university-based research(ers) as well. On the other side of this equation we have a Scientific Community and attendant Press Corps that supports AGW with an almost religious devotion, that relies heavily on dogma and ridicule in order to maintain its unquestionable positions.

As such, this disastrously well-timed leak/hack (whichever you prefer) has clearly shaken those of us who wanted to believe that all Scientists were automatically held to the high standards dictated by their profession, and were infallible in their altruistic search for unbiased fact and clear understanding of the world around us. At the least, this event could just simply demonstrate just how polarized we’ve all become on the issues behind Climate Change, that we now can’t see shades of grey because of all the black/white rhetoric that we must buy into, and uphold at all costs. Lest we be labeled accordingly as pariahs!

Although playing the Devil’s Advocate might entertain us while we watch things play out in the short-term, Environauts are in fact much more concerned about the effectors and events of Causality that exist behind such issues, and how they can sum to larger, longer term impacts upon the future of our environment. This one event that has shaken not only the entire Scientific Community by it’s roots, but also upset all the Industrial and Political dependencies that underpinned the AGW movement, and most certainly qualifies this as a very “tippy” event, and that will undoubtedly trigger many more and varied Future impacts as it moves down the timeline.

To consider the possibilities of both the positive and negative repercussions, you can quickly review our Future Impact Report HERE

Or delve further into the circumstances of this event, starting with a quick opinion survey by clicking for MORE below…

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Cloudy Coverup for Climate Change

02/12/2009 2 comments


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In an effort to wrap our collective heads around all the Causes that can Effect Climate Change, perhaps we could go up into Space to gain some seriously wide-angle perspectives on the subject, and then come back down to Earth with a more grounded view of what’s driving this change.

noc_strange_clouds_ISSThe first layer of atmosphere that we encounter upon re-entry is the Mesospehere, and it’s a frontier zone that’s only now being better explored for it’s peculiar properties. What’s driving this curiosity are visible signs of changes going on up there, which are impacting some wild theories about geo-engineering the skies, to counteract climate change down here.

More than 120 years after their discovery, Noctilucent Clouds (from the Latin words for “Night Shining”) remain a mysterious enigma that only appears up at the very edge of space – or about 75-85 kilometers (50 miles) straight up! This area is called the Mesosphere, and it’s not only very cold (-193F/-125C), but it’s also incredibly dry. Studies show that the mesosphere is about 100 MILLION times drier than the Sahara, so one of the questions that we find 80 kms above us is: just how do these eerie clouds form under such poor conditions? Just to contrast abit, the highest clouds that we normally see are called Cirrus, and form at only about 11 km (36,000feet) where it only gets down to about -40C.

NCLs over northern Europe  Credit: Pekka Parvianien.

So…Let’s consider what makes clouds to begin with? Basically ice crystals, or rain need to two things to form. A dust (1)particle that allows (2)water vapor to collect/condense around the particle in a process called “nucleation”. The theories on Noctilucent Clouds are that the dust required to form them at that altitude is either coming from space, or somehow coming up from the surface far, far below. Water vapor is also incredibly scarce at that altitude, which suggests theories that the water is actually coming from rocket exhaust. An even more fascinating theory suggests that oxidized Methane* is at the supply base for the components of water since atmospheric methane levels have been increasing since the 19th century, and have more than doubled in the past century! So we might be just seeing the early signs of some new form of climate change at work up there at the edge of space…

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